October 17, 2017
Where's the Beef?
During the past month or so, interest rates, oil prices and even gold prices have been rising. The stock market has been moving upward steadily as well, though stocks have been moving up for many years now and accelerating for the past year. With the Federal Reserve Board raising short-term rates and starting to sell assets, along with the many hurricanes we have witnessed, these higher prices are not unexpected.
In reality, it is amazing that interest rates and oil prices have stayed so low with all of these factors involved. We all would like to know where things are headed in the future--will they continue up or settle back down? The bottom line is, we can't predict where prices and rates will go without knowing where the economy is headed. We do know the economy has been heading in the right direction since a pause which took place in the first quarter of the year.
However, we won't have a great idea of where the economy is heading now because of the interruptions of major storms. We could have a very poor quarter or two and then have a major growth spurt because of the tremendous rebuilding that we will be undertaking. Markets always move on psychology because we can't predict the future, but the markets are always looking for indicators of the future. Right now our indicators are likely to be even worse predictors of the future than normal. Thus, in answer to the question -- where is the beef? It may be more hidden than usual.
Rates were up in the past week, with rates on home loans starting to react more closely to the movement of Treasuries. For the week ending October 12, Freddie Mac announced that 30-year fixed rates rose to 3.91% from 3.85% the week before. The average for 15-year loans rose as well, to 3.21%. The average for five-year adjustables moved down to 3.16%, bucking the trend. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates averaged 3.47%. Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac -- "The rate on 30-year fixed loans increased for a second consecutive week, jumping 6 basis points to 3.91 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield also rose, climbing 4 basis points this week." Note: Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.
Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
October 13, 2017
|6-month Treasury Security
|1-year Treasury Security
|3-year Treasury Security
|5-year Treasury Security
|10-year Treasury Security
|| 1.798% (Sept)
|| 1.002% (Sept)
|11th District Cost of Funds
|| 0.732% (Aug)
|| 4.25% (June)
| For most Americans, homeownership remains an integral part of an otherwise shifting interpretation of the American Dream. Nearly 90 percent of Millennials – a group known for their tendency to rent in the city the longest – plan to purchase their own place at some point. The key difference between Millennials and prior generations is that young people view homeownership as a personal lifestyle choice rather than a definite milestone. As such, young home buyers are somewhat particular when it comes to their dream home must-haves. Per a survey conducted by Trulia and Harris Poll, 72 percent of renters ages 18 to 34 plan to buy a home as early as 2018 – which is now just a few short months away. In preparation of this new wave of home buyers, home sellers and real estate professionals must consider where young people want to live and the home features they desire most. There are a few surprises in the survey, for example, Millennials are not expected to line up to purchase tiny homes and are not entirely focused upon the inner cities. Source: Trulia -- Want access to the full article on the preferences of Millennials? Contact Us
Real Estate is American’s favorite long-term investment, according to a recent poll by Bankrate. In its Financial Security Index, which was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, they asked 1,002 adults via telephone—for money that wouldn’t be touched for at least 10 years—what did they think was the best investment? Twenty-eight percent said real estate, while cash investments came in a close second at 23 percent. Bringing up the rear was the stock market at 17 percent, gold at 15 percent, and bonds at 4 percent. Six percent of those polled answered “other.” Bankrate suggests that the reason real estate is the favorite is three-fold: rising home prices, perpetually low interest rates, and tax incentives. Plus, there’s the added bonus of having a place to call home, permanently. Source: The M Report
Zillow reported that the median rent for houses rose 1.3 percent annually to a monthly rent payment of $1,404, while median rent for apartments rose 0.5 percent to a monthly rent payment of $1,551. Median rent for houses is rising faster than median rent for apartments in half of the nation’s 50 major metros. Although 20 percent of all single-family homes were rented in 2016, up from 13.5 percent in 2006, there are fewer single-family homes to rent than a decade ago. And demand is stronger than supply: Zillow found that 45 percent of all recent renters consider renting a single-family home, but only 28 percent ended up renting one. "When the market crashed, many families lost homes they owned during the foreclosure crisis, and now may not be able to afford to buy another as home prices rise," said Zillow Chief Economist Svenja Gudell. "Those who want to buy are finding it difficult to find the right one, or may need a bit more time to come up with a down payment, but still want the advantage of space that single-family residences often provide. This, coupled with the foreclosure crisis turning millions of homeowners into renters, is a big reason why demand for single-family rental homes has risen over the last few years.” Source: National Mortgage Professional