Jobs Recovery

Last month we saw a pretty disappointing jobs report. The quarter of a million jobs added was actually quite strong for a normal month. However, for the era of economy recovery from the pandemic-induced recession, it fell short. Which brings us to an important point to consider. In economics, nothing happens in a straight line.
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For example, the jobs recovery has been very uneven. We regained millions of jobs last summer, but the progress slowed towards the end of the year. Even this year, we had strong gains in March, and as we indicated, not so strong gains in April. This economic “rule” applies to many areas. Many had thought interest rates would keep rising this year, but after increasing for a few months, they leveled off and fell back a bit. That does not mean they won’t continue rising in the future.
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Inflation is now increasing, but many analysts expect this inflation to calm down before long – referring to the phenomenon as “transitory.” Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Well, we must make one exception. The economy ground to a halt all at once due to the pandemic. This was a unique happening and frankly we hope it never happens again. Today there is true optimism due to the success of the vaccination programs. We expect this optimism to carry the economy forward—just not in a straight line.