Population Growth Slows

As national population growth sits at a record low, domestic migration was the key component of population change at state and local levels in 2021, according to demographic findings of Harvard University’s State of the Nation’s Housing report released this summer. Population grew in most states with net domestic inflows—meaning more people moving into the state than out, not including immigrants— while population typically shrank in states with net domestic outflows. In most states, domestic migration outpaced net international immigration and natural population change, both of which were declining in recent years before falling sharply in the first year of the pandemic. With prices continuing to rise along with interest rates, this has raised the financial hurdles for first-time and middle-income buyers.

The report illustrates regional preferences for the Sunbelt and southeast in particular. County-level changes provide more nuance, however, showing some counties gaining migrants even in states with net outflows, and vice versa. Smaller metropolitan area counties generally gained migrants, as did non-metropolitan counties. In total, 511 counties —or 70%— in metro areas with fewer than 1 million people had net inflows in 2021, as did 1,235 counties —or 63 percent— outside of metropolitan areas. These both differ from pre-pandemic levels. In 2019, a slight majority —or 55%— of smaller metro counties had net inflows, much lower than the number and share in 2021.

Source: MReport