Short Month, Big Data

This year is a leap year. The one year in four that we have an extra day added to the calendar. Well, not exactly one in four, because when it comes to the earth orbiting the sun, it is not exactly an even number. It takes the earth 365 days, 5 hours, 48 minutes and 56 seconds to complete one orbit and adding one day every four years approximately does the trick. Though, skipping the leap year in 2100 will make the numbers work more closely in the long run. That is something the vast majority of us won’t get to experience in our lifetimes, but more likely our kids or grandkids hopefully will.

Still, even with one extra day, February is a short month. It means that economic reports will be crammed into fewer days. This week, the reports on personal spending and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Index (PCE) will be highlighted. With regard to the employment report, it will actually come out later in March because the first Friday in March is the first following a short month. With the Federal Reserve meeting the 19-20 of March, the March 8 jobs report and the March 12 Consumer Price Index release will be the freshest data the Fed has on hand to determine whether to hold on rates changes once again, or lower rates for the first time in four years.

As we have said previously, it is not likely the Fed will lower rates in March. It would likely take some pretty dramatic reports to change that trajectory. On the other hand, this is a leap year and the last time the Fed did lower rates was the last time there was an extra day in February. Could there be some karma at work here? We think it would take quite a leap of faith to come to that conclusion, but you never know!